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TAMBANG, December 02, 2011 | 20.15
Hunting Reserves In Deep Water

Rudi Rubiandini

Subkhan AS
subkhan@tambang.co.id


Oil production decreases because of limited reserves. “Deep Water Sea” becomes an alternative for the development of new reserve source.

If it is analogized to soccer game, BP Migas has no choice anymore, besides defending to prevent it from loosing continuously due to the decreasing oil production. The field in Western Indonesia has been bald thus making it impossible to make maneuver. If it’s forced to run, any would slip, “Now, our position is only defending and it has been good.“ said Head of the Public Relations, Security and Formality Division of BP Migas Gde Pradnyana.

He said that the production decrease is not attributed to laziness but depleting oil reserves. The less optimal production of oil is also attributable to lack of exploration. Production sharing contractors (PSC) could not maximize the production of their working area because of constraints, such as licensing, overlapping land, technical operation and availability of data as well as equipment and managerial capacity of PSC.

Member of the Oil and Natural Gas Production Increase Supervisory Team (TP3M) Deni Tampubolon said that the realized drilling of exploration wells up to mid 2011 has remained very small, around 33% in working areas of exploration and production. The figure is far below the plan of work program and budget (WP&B) 2011.

"The development wells also encounter obstacle due to the limited finding of new fields so that the drilling is mostly executed in mature fields and needs increasingly complicated reservoir management," he said.

In a bid to drive up oil and gas production, TP3M has recommended the acceleration of licensing and appropriation of drilling land, procurement of rig, equipment and production facility, settlement of oil transportation issue, potential upside drilling as well as the implementation of waterflood plan so that the production could increase soon.

Deputy for Operational Affairs of BP Migas Rudi Rubiandini said that naturally production would decrease up to 12%.. “Now, the decrease is only 4%. It means there is effort to improve by 8%," he said. The professor of Bandung-based Institute of Technology also predicts that national oil and gas production would reach 930,000 barrels late this year, maximally 940,000 barrels in November and later decrease in December. Hopefully, it could be preserved at a level of 930,000 barrels next year,” he went on.

He said that in the short term, BP Migas adopts a strategy to force the whole production sharing contractors to be on-stream punctually so that BP Migas ascertains that the whole projects have produced properly and appropriately.

In the long term, said Rudi, BP Migas would encourage PSC to conduct wild cast drilling or exploration drilling. If every PSC explores one or two well, the exploration wells would reach 100 in one year. "There is opportunity to increase oil and gas production from the program," he said.

According to him, it is difficult to accomplish the target of oil lifting because oil production has been ascertained to continue decreasing by 12% per annum. "The production could reach 950,000 barrels by out of the box activities such as rapid acceleration of work in 2013 to become on stream in 2012. However, it is difficult because it deals with investors," he said.

The government has submitted revision for macro assumption of APBN-P 2011 in relations to oil lifting as much as 945,000 barrels per day (bpd) and Indonesia Crude Price (ICP) US$95 per barrel. In APBN 2011, ICP was set at US$80 per barrel with the oil lifting target 970,000 barrels per day.

Related to ICP, Director General of Oil and Gas Evita H. Legowo explained that the price of oil increased significantly early 2011 because of non-fundamental aspects. However, the price tended to decrease early May 2011. Based on the calculation of the Director General of Oil and Gas, the average ICP was US$108 per barrel from December 2010 to June 2011. In the June 2010 – June 2011 period, the average ICP was US$95.91 per barrel. "Based on the developments, we recommend ICP as high US$95 per barrel in RAPBN-P 2011," he said.

The Future In Deep Water Sea

Even though the reserves continue to deplete, it does not mean there is no future. Gde Pradnyana ascertained that BP Migas would be more aggressive by shifting the playing field to Eastern Indonesia. “We would focus on the development of deep water sea,” he said. Following the change in the playing strategy, the trend also shifts. If the Western region is dominated by oil, the East is rich in gas. It’s not wrong if gas becomes the future of Indonesia

According to Gde, BP Migas focuses on deep water mining so as to be able to preserve the stability of target of oil lifting which continues to decrease. The position of oil reserves coming into deep water mining is 3,000 meters from the sea bed. Since 2003, he said, Indonesia has developed the first deep water mining, namely Block West Seno. “West Seno constitutes any of the first deep water projects and we would encourage the deep water mining in regions in Indonesia in the future,” said Gde.

West Seno Field is situated offshore East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The field was found in August 1998 and deemed commercial to develop. The maiden production started to flow in 2003.

Some 205 ft of oil are found West Seno. The field is situated between 2400-3200 ft. Two tension leg platforms (TLP) with one Floating Production Unit (FPU) and supporting pipe are considered to handle oil and gas production with the peak level estimated at 60 MBOPD and 150 MMCFD respectively.

Learning from the success of West Seno, BP Migas has prepared a deep water development scheme in Block Gendalo, Gehem and Bangka field. In Gendalo, the reserves of gas and condensate field are estimated at 700 MMCFGPD and 25 MBPOD. In the meantime, in Block Gehem Fields, the reserves of gas and condensate field are 420 MMCFGPD and 30 MBPOD.

Gde admitted deep water mining needs huge investment and high technology which could only be operated by specified operator. Characteristic of undersea water with temperature three up to four degree could cause the oil to freeze so that the production is affected because the frozen oil would clog oil absorbent pipeline.

In the world, deep water exploration started late 1970s in Mexico Bay (United States), offshore Brazil and West Africa. The growth of the deep water mining is driven by two main factors. Firstly, global hydrocarbon reserves are increasingly depleting in conventional area (mainland and shallow sea -dangkal), while the demand continues to increase. Secondly, technology has continued to develop.

The success rate of deep water exploration is predicted to increase. The estimated reserves in deep water sea are around 8 billion barrels of oil. Now, only few oil and gas reserves in deep water sea in Indonesia are utilized.

Director General of Oil and Gas Evita Legowo said that the government would continue to drive up new working area or blocks having trend currently moving to offshore exploration in deep water sea. "Out of the 228 working area, some 52% is located in the mainland and 48% offshore. However, out of the 19 new working areas, only ten percent is located onshore, while the remainder is offshore. Therefore, the trend moves to offshore," she said.

According to her, as a result of the decreasing oil and gas production, oil and gas revenue decreased to only 30% of the state revenue structure. Unlike the past, the oil and gas sector was almost compatible to state revenue. Even, in 1970s, the state revenue from oil and gas reached 70% of the total state revenue.

"In the past, the revenue from oil and gas competed with tax, it was total for one sub-sector. Therefore, the revenue from oil and gas could reach 70% in the 1970s but now it ranges from 22% to 30%," he said.

In order to explore offshore working areas, she said, special methods are needed because of the high risk of deep water mining, viewed from the availability of equipment, operator and technology. "It’s opportunity which can be explored. The government also provides special scheme for contractors exploring deep water sea because the risk is different indeed," said Evita.

On the other hand, the development of reserves in deep water sea becomes opportunity for domestic shipbuilding industry to boost the production of ships to support deep water mining, following the enforcement of cabotage principle. Deep water mining needs new vessels, such as Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS), Platform Supply Vessel (PSV), and Diving Support Vessel (DSV).

Gde Pradnyana said that the drilling of one exploration well in the deep water sea needs funds amounting to tens up to hundreds of US dollars, higher than investment needed to drill wells on shore and off shore. “It’s attributable to high investment in deep water drilling, one well could cost US$90-100 million,” he said.

Besides the high drilling cost, the amount of cost needed to dislodge reserves in the deep water sea is not small either. The rent of ship of category C, 300ft Jack-up barge (Liftboat) with the used condition reaches Rp 0.6 trillion, while the rent of Deepwater Drilingship in a new condition is Rp. 6 trillion. “The number of ship belonging to Category C, which is needed, is 71 so that the required funds are very considerable,” he said.

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